(Image: Washington Times)
Contrary to popular belief, Newt Gingrich did not just win the Republican presidential nomination.
While the former speaker of the House did pull down 40% in a four-person field, it only reflects his momentum and the party’s reluctance to get on board with Mitt Romney.
The South Carolina GOP has bragged for years, and especially in the last several weeks, that they have correctly picked the Republican presidential nominee every year of the current primary format dating back to 1980. This is meant to put in people’s minds that South Carolina’s primary slams the door shut on the nomination. And it can.
If Romney had won South Carolina and his Iowa victory had been upheld, he would be gearing up for a coronation after winning three states with three different electorates.
Everyone can probably count on Gingrich claiming he is the inevitable candidate since “as an historian” as he endlessly lectures, South Carolina has correctly picked the Republican presidential nominee every year since 1980, but not much was actually decided. Take a closer look at who has won South Carolina under this format.
Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, the latter as the incumbent president. Vice President George H. W. Bush in 1988 and again in 1992 as the incumbent president. Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush in 2000 and again in 2004 as the incumbent president, and John McCain in 2008. Another way of looking at it is that in 28 years, not counting 2012 yet, they have picked three candidates who were not the incumbent president or vice president or the namesake from a family of GOP royalty.
Another fact to consider is that the late-deciding voters went overwhelmingly for Gingrich, just as the late-deciders broke for Santorum in Iowa. That’s not necessarily comforting for Gingrich because it attributes more to expedience than real investment. Also consider Sarah Palin’s almost-endorsement. Notice she said that if she was a South Carolinian she would vote for Newt not because she believes in him, but to continue the process of vetting. In other words, if Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot, voting for a mannequin would have served the purpose just as well.
In the aftermath of the primary, it will be interesting to see if, after his 12-point drubbing, Romney decides to play some offense after playing prevent defense for most of a year. After all, this is the biggest threat he has faced to the nomination so far. By the time Santorum won Iowa, he had already lost all the momentum he gained from almost winning Iowa.
Armed with the knowledge that South Carolina has picked every GOP presidential nominee since 1980, Gingrich may well believe he has actually won the nomination and will behave like a spoiled, entitled crown prince, in much the same way he acted like a spoiled, entitled speaker of the House. That’s one reason Romney may still be inclined to play prevent defense. Newt is his own worst enemy.
Newt can create some hype for awhile by using cheap, red meat talking points about Obama’s unfitness for office or his utter ignorance of the country and its values and traditions. But the shtick will get old. Here’s a tip: When Ann Coulter is lecturing against your “snotty remarks” directed at Democrats, that’s probably a sign you’re on the verge of becoming a cartoon.
So the more Newt talks, the closer the inevitable day comes when the entire news cycle will be inundated with some outrageous, irresponsible statement he’s made. Think Joe Biden with less restraint.
Pragmatic voters will remember why he was tossed from Congress by his own party and maybe even some ideological voters will realize that “big solutions” is code for “big government.”
But the race is about to enter a new stage. With a disappointing third place finish, Santorum will probably hear loud calls to pull the plug. Last week Gingrich ordered Santorum and Perry to drop out so the conservatives could unite behind him. Perry obeyed, although Gingrich would have won South Carolina without him. Either way, there will be calls for Santorum to follow suit. His momentum from Iowa is gone but seeing that Gingrich has had a second surge he may think he’s got another chance. If he drops out soon, that will leave the conservative opposition little else but to unite behind the flip-flopping, philandering ex-lobbyist.
And Ron Paul, although he finished in last place, still reached double-digits despite essentially ceding the first winner-take-all state. If Santorum gets out before Newt inevitably incinerates himself, that leaves a potential opening for Paul as the last non-Romney.
Whether Republicans will want to unite behind a constitutionalist may be another matter.
Tags: Featured
South Carolina Postmortem
(Image: Washington Times)
Contrary to popular belief, Newt Gingrich did not just win the Republican presidential nomination.
While the former speaker of the House did pull down 40% in a four-person field, it only reflects his momentum and the party’s reluctance to get on board with Mitt Romney.
The South Carolina GOP has bragged for years, and especially in the last several weeks, that they have correctly picked the Republican presidential nominee every year of the current primary format dating back to 1980. This is meant to put in people’s minds that South Carolina’s primary slams the door shut on the nomination. And it can.
If Romney had won South Carolina and his Iowa victory had been upheld, he would be gearing up for a coronation after winning three states with three different electorates.
Everyone can probably count on Gingrich claiming he is the inevitable candidate since “as an historian” as he endlessly lectures, South Carolina has correctly picked the Republican presidential nominee every year since 1980, but not much was actually decided. Take a closer look at who has won South Carolina under this format.
Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, the latter as the incumbent president. Vice President George H. W. Bush in 1988 and again in 1992 as the incumbent president. Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush in 2000 and again in 2004 as the incumbent president, and John McCain in 2008. Another way of looking at it is that in 28 years, not counting 2012 yet, they have picked three candidates who were not the incumbent president or vice president or the namesake from a family of GOP royalty.
Another fact to consider is that the late-deciding voters went overwhelmingly for Gingrich, just as the late-deciders broke for Santorum in Iowa. That’s not necessarily comforting for Gingrich because it attributes more to expedience than real investment. Also consider Sarah Palin’s almost-endorsement. Notice she said that if she was a South Carolinian she would vote for Newt not because she believes in him, but to continue the process of vetting. In other words, if Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot, voting for a mannequin would have served the purpose just as well.
In the aftermath of the primary, it will be interesting to see if, after his 12-point drubbing, Romney decides to play some offense after playing prevent defense for most of a year. After all, this is the biggest threat he has faced to the nomination so far. By the time Santorum won Iowa, he had already lost all the momentum he gained from almost winning Iowa.
Armed with the knowledge that South Carolina has picked every GOP presidential nominee since 1980, Gingrich may well believe he has actually won the nomination and will behave like a spoiled, entitled crown prince, in much the same way he acted like a spoiled, entitled speaker of the House. That’s one reason Romney may still be inclined to play prevent defense. Newt is his own worst enemy.
Newt can create some hype for awhile by using cheap, red meat talking points about Obama’s unfitness for office or his utter ignorance of the country and its values and traditions. But the shtick will get old. Here’s a tip: When Ann Coulter is lecturing against your “snotty remarks” directed at Democrats, that’s probably a sign you’re on the verge of becoming a cartoon.
So the more Newt talks, the closer the inevitable day comes when the entire news cycle will be inundated with some outrageous, irresponsible statement he’s made. Think Joe Biden with less restraint.
Pragmatic voters will remember why he was tossed from Congress by his own party and maybe even some ideological voters will realize that “big solutions” is code for “big government.”
But the race is about to enter a new stage. With a disappointing third place finish, Santorum will probably hear loud calls to pull the plug. Last week Gingrich ordered Santorum and Perry to drop out so the conservatives could unite behind him. Perry obeyed, although Gingrich would have won South Carolina without him. Either way, there will be calls for Santorum to follow suit. His momentum from Iowa is gone but seeing that Gingrich has had a second surge he may think he’s got another chance. If he drops out soon, that will leave the conservative opposition little else but to unite behind the flip-flopping, philandering ex-lobbyist.
And Ron Paul, although he finished in last place, still reached double-digits despite essentially ceding the first winner-take-all state. If Santorum gets out before Newt inevitably incinerates himself, that leaves a potential opening for Paul as the last non-Romney.
Whether Republicans will want to unite behind a constitutionalist may be another matter.
Tags: Featured